Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Whaddya know?

From the founder of the world's largest hedge fund (with a return of 9 1/2% in 2008 when everybody else tanked):   "Our greatest power is that we know that we don't know and we are open to being wrong, and learning."
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, quoted by J. Cassidy in the New Yorker,  7/25/11, p.58.

I think Bridgewater subscribes to  Rumsfield's 2d and 3d categories, but does the first exist for them?  The Secretary of Defense in 2002:   Known knowns - things we know;  Known unknowns - things we don't know; Unknown unknowns - things we don't know we don't know.


And does the famous Outside the Context Problem (OCP) in Bank's science fiction  Excession (1996) and
Taleb's analyses in Black Swan Theory (2007) fall only in the 3d category?

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